In this episode of the Brinkman Report, host Kevin Brinkman had the pleasure of speaking with Carol Ng, an interest rate expert from Derivative Logic and a recognized authority in the field. They delved into the complexities of forecasting interest rates, starting with the importance of technical analysis and chart trends. Carol emphasized that while the bond market can be slow-moving, understanding the underlying data—particularly around employment and inflation—is crucial for making informed predictions.

The discussion highlighted the current state of the labor market, noting that while headline employment numbers appear strong, revisions often tell a different story. Carol pointed out that Wall Street is beginning to recognize this discrepancy, which could lead to more aggressive rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

As they explored the impact of geopolitical factors, particularly the depreciation of the Japanese yen and its potential effects on U.S. Treasury yields, Carol provided insights into how these dynamics could influence the market over the next 6 to 18 months. They also touched on the implications of the U.S. national debt and the challenges it poses for future economic stability.

Throughout the conversation, Carol shared her thoughts on the forward curve and how it reflects market sentiment regarding future interest rates. The episode concluded with a speed round, where Carol made predictions about the 10-year Treasury yield, the timing of Fed rate cuts, and the likelihood of a hard landing for the economy.

This episode is packed with valuable insights for anyone interested in understanding interest rates and their implications for real estate and the broader economy. Kevin encouraged listeners to reach out to Carol for her expertise in managing interest rate risk. Thank you for tuning in, and stay tuned for the next episode!