EPISODE NINE

2025 Outlook: Economic Predictions and Market Insights

with Kevin Brinkman, Sasha Shtern, and Russell Hedman


In this episode of The Brinkman Report, the conversation centered on economic forecasts for 2025 and ventured into discussions about real estate, sports, and potential global risks. The episode opened with a series of quick economic predictions, first addressing the then-current 10-year Treasury yield of 4.57%. Some predictions pointed to a potential drop below 4%, indicating a more subdued economy that could create headwinds for real estate professionals if interest rates remain high. Others suggested the yield might hover between 4% and 4.5%, revealing a certain level of uncertainty about how market forces and policy decisions might play out.

The discussion then shifted to the Federal Reserve’s policy, where the possibility of rate cuts and even a return to quantitative easing was debated. While some participants foresaw one or two rate reductions, there were also cautions about persistent inflation, suggesting that policymakers might remain hesitant to lower rates too aggressively. This dovetailed into a conversation about the Consumer Price Index, with one viewpoint positing a stabilization near 2% and another projecting a slight uptick due to labor supply issues and continued economic momentum.

A debate on GDP growth underscored the episode’s varying perspectives on the strength of the economy. On one hand, there was optimism that growth could surpass 3% thanks to increased capital deployment across various industries. On the other, the potential for labor shortages was raised as a significant counterforce that might cap expansion. The importance of treasury rates in influencing the labor market was also recognized, as persistently high rates could introduce new vulnerabilities.

Attention then turned to possible “black swan” events capable of triggering negative GDP growth. These ranged from domestic policy changes to structural concerns in the insurance sector—particularly in regions prone to natural disasters. The conversation also examined international flashpoints, with speculation on how tensions in certain regions could escalate, while other global conflicts might see a period of stabilization.

Moving away from purely economic concerns, the episode explored the robust valuations of sports franchises, emphasizing the limited supply of premier teams and the continually rising demand among wealthy investors. The potential for autonomous vehicles to reshape urban real estate was another focal point. If parking requirements were minimized in dense cities, properties could benefit from reclaimed space, while lower rideshare costs could alter commuting habits and attract more residents to urban centers.

Finally, the question of whether future generations would maintain interest in sports franchises sparked a lively debate. Some insisted these assets would remain culturally and financially resilient, given their longstanding legacy status. Others touched on evolving entertainment habits and how they might gradually shift what society values in sports, real estate, and beyond. Overall, the episode presented a panoramic view of the forces shaping 2025, blending economic projections, policy debates, and cultural insights into one sweeping forecast.